Gold and silver on the rise: chance of a rate hike falls

It was a wonderful week for precious metals investors. The gold price climbed by almost 8 percent, while the silver price even produced a rise of nearly 12 percent. With that increase, gold has climbed back above its 200-day exponential moving average at $4,279 per ounce.

Until June, that average formed a support level for the gold price. It was then lost, subsequently turned into resistance, and has now been reclaimed. That gives the gold price hopeful signals.

Last week, gold and silver ended strongly following a weak US jobs report. Beforehand, a slight rise in job growth had been expected. In the end, however, a negative figure appeared on the boards.

That was reason enough for precious metals to rise. The US central bank has raised its policy rate at a meeting following negative job growth only twice in history. That happened only in November 1999 and November 2025, out of a total of 89 occasions.

Although another jobs report follows in September, the chance of a rate hike at the meeting on 16 September has fallen to below 50 percent.

For the remainder of 2026, the market now expects a little more than one 0.25 percentage point rate hike. There is even a 22.8 percent chance that rates remain unchanged for the rest of the year. A week ago, that same probability stood at 13.2 percent.
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What's notable is that these developments around Federal Reserve policy and the gold price are unfolding while negotiations between the United States and Iran once again threaten to break down. On Monday morning, the oil price accordingly started rising once again.

In theory, that produces higher inflation, which would force central banks to turn stricter again. For now, gold and silver seem to be paying little attention to that. In principle, it's a strong signal that precious metals are continuing to climb cautiously, even as there appears to be some cautious geopolitical headwind.

For that reason, a rate hike in September currently looks unlikely. That gives gold and silver room to breathe, meaning last week's positive momentum could easily continue.

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In the chart above we can see that the silver price hesitated only briefly, and is now climbing back towards last Friday's local high of $65 per ounce. It's clear that investors are once again starting to find precious metals attractive at current prices.

This week again promises to be an important one for precious metals and the financial markets as a whole. There's a week on the calendar in which we get a Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) release from the United States.

Wednesday kicks off that data series with the CPI, while Thursday brings the PPI. These figures could either upend market expectations around Federal Reserve policy, or confirm the recent developments.

A relatively soft inflation reading, where it's especially important that rising oil prices don't spill over beyond energy markets, would strengthen the case against a rate hike. In theory, that should help gold and silver as well.

The troubles in the Middle East, however, remain a risk factor. For now, the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, which could send the oil price jumping again. For the Federal Reserve, though, it remains difficult to set policy around this, especially since the situation can shift considerably from day to day.